By now we have heard all the talk and read all the facts the Republican party is a dying party it lacks support among minorities, young voters and single women and these groups handed President Obama, whom even many of his own supporters have said gave the nation an average to below average first term, an historic re-election victory. Exit poll after exit poll should voters from these groups just did not trust Republican nominee Mitt Romney or the GOP in general to be on their side. All of this is true and my party needs to fix this problem. However I want to state that I believe my party has an even bigger problem…… which is we can no keep losing the urban vote.
Like the robot from the old TV series “Lost in Space” who would shout out “Danger will Robinson Danger” whenever his young companion was in immediate peril. I too wish to shout out to my party, “Danger GOP danger!” In 2000 we lost the urban vote by 71%, 60% in 2004, 70% in 2008, and 69% in 2012. In Massachusetts mar key senate race Republican Scott Brown lost every one of the Commonwealth’s top 10 cities to his democratic opponent Liz Warren. Brown lost the race by 229,228 votes. Warren received 247,574 votes out of those top 10 cities alone. The suburbs as a voting bloc have powered the GOP engine for decades and have been largely responsible for our overall electoral success. In fact in 1952 republican stalwart Sen. Robert Taft famously said, “The Democratic Party will never win another national election until it solves the problem of the suburbs”. Well between strategy and circumstance the democrats have solved it. Obama won the suburbs in 2008 and although Romney won them back in 2012, he only won those 50 to 48 percent, not nearly enough. For example Romney did far better than John McCain in the “ big four Suburban counties” that surround Philadelphia even winning one of them. In fact it was probably the Romney campaign’s polling data from these counties that made them think the state was in play. However Romney despite this strong showing was trounced by the votes coming out of Philly. The city gave the Dems a margin around 465,000 votes. The burbs have become at best for the GOP swing voter territory and at worst some, especially, the older ones are trending towards the Democrats. Who have began to compete much more aggressively for suburban vote, all the while keeping an almost completely uncontested hold on our largest cities. And why is this a long term problem for the party? Well we now know that after years of decline our cities are growing faster than our suburbs and going hand in hand with the reverse in declining population is a reverse in low voter participation.
There was a time not that long ago when the voting population of our major cities were uninspired. White flight had taken its toll, upwardly mobile traditional white families who had been the largest voting demographic were gone. Leaving behind a minority population who’s needs, in any realistic and honest analysis were routinely suppressed for what was thought to be the benefit of those very same families who fled the city for the suburbs, a white population many of whom could not afford to leave and in many cases felling abandoned, and new immigrants who like all immigrants built insular communities. Many folks in these groups did not feel a sense of belonging or ownership to the cities that they lived in and lower voter participation compared to the suburban counterparts was on result. But things have changed, as time as gone on the city voter as grown to feel more and more ownership and more importantly more responsibility for their cities. The groups that remind in the city after white flight have developed coalitions with the gay community, young professionals, and young families around quality of life issues and they are revitalizing the energy in our cities and as a result voter participation is on the rise in our urban centers.
If the GOP does not quickly develop a message for these voters and a strategy to compete for their votes we will be the party that is in danger of never winning another national election until we solve our big city problem. The GOP needs to look at cities the same way the wildcatters looked at empty fields in Texas, there’s oil under the ground and if we can drill it out we will prosper. There are votes in the cities lots of votes if the GOP can earn those votes the party and the country will prosper.
The Fortes View 